Friday, May 2, 2014

AEGR Problems

See slide at

What are the problems with AEGR?
RE: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

DOJ Investigation into AEGR sales and promotion practices

No closure with recent FDA warning

AEGR IR says FDA and DOJ problems are probably different

Shareholder lawsuit: "False and misleading statements"

Brazilian government investigation through anti-corruption law

If Brazil investigation yields evidence, threat of additional SEC/DOJ action via Foreign Corrupt Practices act

Straight-up sales practices?  Only Brazil and the US are making meaningful contributions to revenue, yet precisely these two are subject to Government investigations

Intense regulatory scrutiny may force AEGR to pull back current sales practices, reducing revenue

If sales flatten out or decrease, the stock price has a very long way to fall.
AEGR claims a USA patient population of 3,000, while the very scientists on their drug say there are only 300. Nobel Prize winners also say there are only 300.  If the scientists are correct, then AEGR's promotional attempt at more than 300 could constitute off-label marketing and could explain the current DOJ investigation.
European sales have yet to deliver any meaningful revenue.
“The non-U.S. patents directed to the composition of matter of lomitapide issued in Canada, Israel, Japan, and certain EU countries are scheduled to expire in 2016.” ~ AEGR SEC 10-K
The sales team and effort behind rival drug, Kynamro, has recently been increased -- perhaps to take advantage of AEGR's regulatory entanglements and the damage done to AEGR's reputation.
AMGN, REGN, PFE, etc. are showing good results with a possible new blockbuster rival: the anti-PCSK9 drug class.
AEGR claims that its commercial team has been managing drop out rates -- which ought to be subject to medical discipline, not commercial interests.

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