Friday, July 11, 2014

Response to Todd Campbell's The Motley Fool Article

Campbell: "With a market cap of just $850 million, shares are trading at between four and five times sales and, while that's not cheap, it's not out-of-control expensive either."
AEGR's price to sales is 11.4, not "4 or 5."
The article also fails to mention factors behind Aegerion's crash:
… The patient population contradictions between the CEO and the scientists that work on AEGR's drug, which is key to understanding the price drop. The CEO says there can be 3,000 HoFH patients in the US, while Dr. Sumeray of AEGR just left testimony in Germany that there are only 300. Dr. Rader and Dr. Cuchel -- both worked on AEGR's drug -- also use the number 300. With AEGR reporting +450 patients, there is a risk that many of these patients are off-label, despite a very strict REMS ETASU in place that was specifically designed to prevent off-label prescriptions.
… Indeed, the DOJ is conducting an investigation into AEGR's marketing practices.
… Another omission from this article: AMGN's antiPCSK9 drug threatens to upset AEGR's narrative later this year.

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