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Thursday, December 18, 2014

Solve the Aegerion Puzzle


Aegerion Algebra: The following puzzle rests upon a few assumptions:



That Aegerion did not misrepresent dropout rates for first year experience with its drug in 2013.

That that rate would serve as sample for the first year experience of new patients in 2014.

Thus, dropout for first year experience in 2013 was 15%, and we use that percentage to estimate dropout for patients in their first year in 2014. (Green cell, between cells “F” and “G”)

Given that Aegerion has not given investors an update on patient counts, we use a revenue derived estimate of 508 for the third quarter 2014. (Brown cell, next to cell “J”)

All other data points have been provided by Aegerion. (Blue cells)

If you disagree with any of these two estimates, insert your own and see what dropout rates you end up with.

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