Aegerion Algebra: The
following puzzle rests upon a few assumptions:

•That
that rate would serve as sample for the first year experience of new patients in
2014.

•Thus,
dropout for first year experience in 2013 was 15%, and we use that percentage
to estimate dropout for patients in their first year in 2014. (Green cell,
between cells “F” and “G”)

•Given
that Aegerion has not given investors an update on patient counts, we use a
revenue derived estimate of 508 for the third quarter 2014. (Brown cell, next
to cell “J”)

•All other data points have been provided
by Aegerion.
(Blue cells)

•If
you disagree with any of these
two estimates, insert your own and see what dropout rates you end up with.

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